Dear Investors,
Tectonic shifts are happening in the global economy today, and one of the key components reshaping the modern economic order is the US dollar.
Its status as the world’s primary reserve currency has granted the United States unparalleled financial influence, but growing concerns about its potential weakening—or even collapse—are gaining traction.
Understanding the implications of the current dollar meltdown and knowing how to protect your wealth right now is critical.
This is Your Last Chance to Act!
The US Dollar is worth 9% less than it was at the beginning of the year.
It's become a primary target of the current administration, and the policy shifts taking place to change the US dollar's role are going to have unprecedented consequences on financial markets, possibly leading to the biggest opportunities of our lifetimes.
Since the start of 2025, we've seen the US dollar weaken by 8% against the Japanese Yen, by 9% against the Euro, by 13% against the Swedish Krona, and more recently, we've seen the dollar completely collapse against the Taiwan New Dollar within a matter of a few days.
One by one, currencies around the world are strengthening relative to the US dollar.
None of this is a coincidence.
Washington has made it clear that it believes the US dollar's strength and status as a global reserve currency has been one of the root causes behind the problems that the US economy faces today, like the decline in manufacturing employment along with the massive trade deficit that the US has with the rest of the world.
The theory behind this isn't completely crazy.
A strong currency does make local goods less attractive to foreign buyers.
Deliberately weakening the local currency is a strategy that is often used by governments around the world in an attempt to boost local manufacturing.
Donald Trump and the rest of his administration have talked about wanting to weaken the dollar for this exact reason.
They argue that a strong dollar has kept a lid on US economic prosperity and that it's now time to open that lid.
It actually looks like they're doing this.
The US dollar has just seen its largest 10-week decline against the Euro since 2010 and seems to be breaking a large uptrend that it started in 2008.
Understanding The US Dollar
For those accustomed to navigating international markets, the concept of currency strength is intuitive.
A $100 bill, a universally accepted tool for basic needs and demonstrates the dollar's immediate purchasing power.
The most common measure is the US Dollar Index (DXY), a weighted average of the dollar's value against a basket of six major currencies: the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona, and Swiss Franc.
While historically significant, critics argue that the DXY's fixed weightings don't accurately reflect current US trade patterns, particularly the growing dominance of China, Mexico, and Canada as trading partners.
A more comprehensive and dynamic measure is the Nominal Broad US Dollar Index.
This index considers a wider array of foreign currencies and rebalances yearly to reflect their current importance in US trade.
This "trade-weighted index" offers a more accurate barometer of the dollar's overall strength.
The Dollar Smile
Despite popular belief, the dollar's behavior isn't always straightforward, as the "dollar smile" theory explains its counterintuitive movements, strengthening during extreme economic strength or severe global crises and weakening in moderate conditions.
Economic Distress (Left Side)
During crises, investors flock to the dollar as a safe-haven asset, boosting its value. This was evident during the 2008 financial crisis, when the DXY surged 22% as global markets collapsed, and in March 2020, when COVID-19 fears drove a 7% spike in two weeks.Moderate Performance (Bottom)
In periods of stable but unremarkable growth, the dollar weakens as investors seek higher returns in riskier markets, such as EMs. This was seen in 2010–11, when the DXY fell 15% as the US economy recovered slowly post-crisis.Economic Strength (Right Side)
Robust US economic growth attracts foreign capital into US stocks, bonds, and real estate, strengthening the dollar. For instance, in 2017, strong US GDP growth (2.5%) and corporate tax cuts fueled a 10% DXY rise.
This dynamic means the dollar thrives in economic extremes but falters during moderate performance, creating a window of opportunity for the rest of the world when the dollar weakens.
A weaker dollar has massive repercussions on global financial markets.
But this is nothing compared to the opportunities that could come from a plummeting US dollar.
Most people don't actually know what to do about this.
Implications for Global Markets
The dollar freefall, which is happening right now, creates significant opportunities and shifts in global markets, particularly for emerging markets (EMs).
As a result, world's largest investment banks, recently changed their view, now saying that it's time for emerging market stocks and have given an overweight rating to emerging market stocks.
This means they believe that one should invest in these stocks now because there are good opportunities for growth and profit here.
Earlier, they were neutral, neither yes nor no.
Now they are saying, yes, buy EM stocks.
The question is, why did they change their opinion?
There are three main reasons behind this.
First, a weakening US dollar.
Second, the low price of EM stocks, meaning attractive valuations.
Third, a boom in commodity prices, benefiting EMs rich in resources.
This combination can create big profits.
So, is there really an opportunity to earn in EM stocks now?
Let's examine in simple language how all this happened and what benefits you can get from it.
The First And Biggest Reason Is The Weakening US Dollar.
So far this year, the dollar index has fallen by about 8.5%, and when the dollar falls, EM countries benefit.
How?
EM countries have taken a lot of loans in dollars.
When the dollar is cheaper, it is easier for them to repay their loans.
Their goods now become even cheaper worldwide.
Exports increase.
Foreign investors are more willing to invest in EM assets.
JP Morgan believes that the dollar will weaken further, and this will give EM stocks another boost.
A weaker dollar boosts demand for goods like Indian textiles, Brazilian soybeans, or Chinese electronics.
In 2018, a declining dollar supported Asian equities, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gaining 9% when the DXY fell 7.5%.
In 2023, China’s exports grew 7% due to a 5% dollar depreciation against the yuan.
This drives GDP growth, corporate earnings, and stock market gains.
A weaker dollar drives capital flows to EMs, as investors seek higher returns.
In 2023, global GDP grew 3.5% (IMF data), with EMs like India and the Philippines outpacing developed markets.
A 10% gain in Indian equities could yield a 15% USD return if the dollar weakens against the rupee.
The Second Reason Is Valuation, Or Price
Today, emerging market equities trade at a trailing P/E ratio of 15.1, compared to 20–22 for developed markets (MSCI, 2025).
Firms like India’s Infosys, with a P/E of about 23.7 versus 35.7 for U.S. counterparts like Microsoft, continue to offer growth at a discount.
So investors rush there.
JP Morgan has shown special confidence in some countries.
India, the world's fastest-growing market.
China's tech sector, now with less trade war tension, tech stocks get relief.
Brazil, the Philippines, Chile, UAE, Greece, and Poland – all these countries are part of the emerging market, and positive signals are visible here.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM) has already gone up 9% this year.
This means investors' interest is already increasing.
From 2021 until now, EM stocks have underperformed developed markets by 40%.
But now it seems that the story is changing.
The trade environment is improving.
The dollar is weakening, and stocks are cheap.
Third, Commodity Prices Increase, Benefiting EMs Rich In Resources
The U.S. dollar is the global standard for pricing most commodities, such as oil, gold, copper, and agricultural products like soybeans.
When the dollar weakens—say, by 10% against a basket of currencies—it becomes cheaper for foreign buyers holding stronger currencies (e.g., euros, yen, or yuan) to purchase these commodities.
This increased purchasing power often drives up demand, pushing prices higher.
Additionally, commodities like gold are seen as hedges against dollar depreciation, attracting investors and further elevating prices.
Historical data supports this.
As mentioned, a 10% dollar decline could lift gold prices by 8–15% and oil by 8–12%.
These ranges come from observed correlations, like those tracked by commodity indices or studies from institutions like the IMF or World Bank.
Gold’s stronger response often stems from its role as a safe-haven asset, while oil’s price is also influenced by supply factors (e.g., OPEC decisions) and global demand.
With all three factors coming together, investors are saying,
"Let's go towards EM."
But Wait, There Is More… Additional Reasons To Invest In EM Now!
I think emerging markets, particularly Asia, are poised to be the future of our investment portfolios due to their unique advantages in the current environment.
Demographic Advantage Fueling Growth
EMs boast younger populations, with a median age of 28 in India vs. 38 in the US and 44 in Germany. This demographic dividend drives workforce growth, consumption, and innovation, fueling long-term economic expansion.EM economies grow faster than developed markets, driven by young populations, rapid industrialization, and rising consumer demand. India and China lead with GDP growth rates of 6–8% annually, compared to 2–3% for the US and 1–2% for Europe (IMF, 2023). By 2030, EMs are projected to account for 60% of global GDP growth, with India overtaking Germany as the third-largest economy.
China’s Technological & Economic Leadership
China’s technological and economic advancements, from thorium reactors to high-speed rail, make it a magnet for global capital. Its $19 trillion economy (second-largest globally) and $500 billion in annual FDI lift regional markets, creating a ripple effect across EMs like India and Indonesia.With initiatives like the RCEP, covering 15 Asia-Pacific nations and 2.2 billion people, reduce trade barriers and enhance export competitiveness. RCEP boosted intra-regional trade by 8% in 2023, benefiting countries like Vietnam (exports up 12%) and the Philippines (FDI up 15%). Other agreements, like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), further amplify EM growth.
Diversification Benefits:
EMs provide diversification, as their economic cycles often differ from those of developed markets. For example, India’s consumer-driven growth contrasts with the US’s tech-heavy economy, reducing portfolio volatility.
EMs have shown resilience to global shocks, with diversified economies and improving governance. For instance, India’s digital economy grew 20% during COVID-19, while Brazil’s commodity exports remained stable.
A 20% EM allocation can lower portfolio risk by 2–3% (Vanguard study, 2023).
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index’s 9% rise in 2025, after underperforming developed markets by 40% from 2021 to 2022, signals a rebound driven by improved trade environments, a weaker dollar, and undervalued assets.
Countries like India (tech and consumer goods), Brazil (agriculture and commodities), the Philippines (services), and South Africa (mining) offer diverse opportunities.
So, now the question is, what should you do?